Hopefully not red, which is the color of blood. But the possibility that it might be cannot be entirely discarded.
Several key issues need to be discussed. First, whether what is in progress in Serbia is a color revolution , or merely a warning to the regime to follow orders more punctiliously. Second, if a color revolution has been launched with the goal of regime change, what could be the reasons for it? Third, what does the collective West hope to gain by dismissing a regime that for the most part has served its interests and obeyed its will faithfully?
- Is a color revolution in progress in Serbia?
In our judgment, yes. The purpose of the rising political tensions and externally manufactured upheavals in Serbia is more than just to deliver a warning to the regime to toe the line.
Whether the speed of regime’s compliance with the demands being put to it is satisfactory to its masters is ultimately a matter of assessment. But even the sternest masters must take into account that objectively some highly complex and emotionally charged tasks, such as Kosovo, cannot be accomplished overnight, although it might reasonably be argued that relinquishing Serbia’s claims there has taken rather too long. But regardless, it now finally is to all intents and purposes a done a deal. Once the latest Brussels and Ohrid arrangements are put in place the collective West will get what it wanted. All parties publicly agree that implementation, resulting in Kosovo’s complete detachment from Serbia, is all that remains.
The regime’s reluctance over the years to settle the Kosovo issue according to the timetable of its masters, sooner rather than later, is perfectly understandable. Patriotism plays no role in that. It rightly fears that once Kosovo becomes a done deal, the major reason for sustaining it in power will evaporate, or at least greatly diminish. It has delayed putting finishing touches on Kosovo because its expressed willingness to do the job was always a major factor that enhanced its utility to its Western sponsors. The regime was installed in 2013 principally to solve the Kosovo problem according to the designs of its Western masters. There never was any genuine reluctance on its part to complete its assigned task, but objective factors did influence the pace of compliance. Compliance has now been practically completed.
That a regime change operation has been launched precisely when the regime’s main job is essentially done may appear paradoxical. But it is not, and the reasons for that will be discussed below. Many signs do point to a concerted effort to remove and replace the ruling clique in Serbia. The tragic shootings at the beginning of May have been seized upon to organize weekly mass protests with a very interesting agenda. It is “against violence” rather than against the system. Such a restrained agenda serves the interests of the collective West extremely well and therefore from week to week it remains unchallenged. Protest organizers are not bothered by the extreme violence to which Albanian thugs have been subjecting the Serbian community in Kosovo over the last few weeks and the betrayal of Kosovo is a non-issue in these massive demonstrations. That is a dead give-away of who is behind them.
It is now indisputable that the behind the scenes organizers of the protests are several Western-financed “NGOs” and political organizations, which indicates who guides their activities and whose agenda they are serving. While these “anti-violence” (a typically vague, all purpose grievance from the color revolution playbook) protests are gathering momentum, their demands are carefully modulated so as to target lower-level components of the regime, gradually working their way toward the top. Meanwhile, the residual indignation resulting from the mass shootings is stoked up and can always be manipulated to raise, politicize, and focus tensions whenever that is judged opportune. Significantly, what appears to be the groundwork for a criminal indictment of regime’s top echelons is being steadily composed in the collective West’s media (The New York Times and The Guardian) and some unusually harsh assessments are being heard from the US Congress. Slowly but surely the color revolution infrastructure is being put in place for what Gene Sharp has called the big Final Push.
- Why would the West want a color revolution in Serbia?
We believe that the main reason is to preserve the neo-colonial system through which it has ruled Serbia to its geopolitical advantage since it engineered the coup against the Milosevic government in October of 2000. As the current regime correctly suspected, with Kosovo now mostly out of the way (not completely, but the process is now seen as nearly irreversible) its utility will have declined. Accordingly, the corruption and theft that have characterized its misrule over the last ten years, until recently permitted by Western human rights and rule of law monitors as a reward for compliance with the Kosovo agenda, now are coming to the forefront as major issues (along with quite a few others). By severely tarnishing the regime and lowering public toleration for its mischief, these issues, as a matter of perception, threaten to undermine also the stability and credibility of the systemic environment within which the regime operates. That is a major reason why the articulation of system-threatening discourse during the mass “protest” demonstrations is carefully regulated and censored. Things are being stirred up, but that is done in a controlled way, so as not to get out of hand. That is why operational management of the “protests,” albeit from behind the scenes, has been entrusted entirely to trained cadres on the Western payroll, with propaganda support provided by Western-owned and operated media in Serbia.
Public disgust with SNS regime rule has reached unimaginable levels. For the moment there are no organized political forces or credible figures capable of channelling that fury against the system and seeking its total destruction and restructuring on new principles, from the bottom up, rather than envisioning merely cosmetic changes. But there is an ever-present risk of things unexpectedly moving in that direction. That possibility, no matter how theoretical it may appear at the moment, must be taken into account and eliminated by decisive pre-emptive action. The color revolution operation should be viewed in that light.
In addition to that, Western sponsors have lost faith in the regime’s capacity to reinvent itself because it is composed of the most scandalous scum, totally bereft of any useful talent other than theft. This is not a moral but a purely practical issue. Merely amputating “diseased” elements of the regime is not the solution because there are no “uncontaminated” or clean elements that could be fished out of the SNS cesspool and brought in to replace the “bad apples”. Therefore, everything must go, the whole ball of wax. That is a major reason why this is not a warning to the regime, but an eviction notice.
Finally, returning to the point about the preservation of the system, a proper assessment of the political naiveté of the Serbian masses has been made in places where these decisions are being taken. By bringing in a new team of collaborators now, two important goals will be facilitated. Firstly, popular anger will be deflated with the presumed disappearance of its object, the current criminal regime. Further questions about the nature of the oppressive colonial system will be suspended. Secondly, although the new team are in reality recycled old players, the public has forgotten their earlier misconduct and will easily be manipulated into overlooking their past sins in the vain hope of a “new deal”. The replacement, although lacking in the capacity to produce hoped for substantive change, will have a sufficient sedative effect to prolong the life of the system for a while longer.
- What does the collective West gain by dismissing the current regime?
In addition to the enumerated benefits, among which removing threats to the preservation of the current system of colonial rule ranks as the most important, it gains stability and predictability, at least for the near term. During the current global reordering, in the zone of Western influence that is supremely important. Instability is not allowed unless it can be tightly controlled. The current usurper has, among other personal problems, severe mental issues. To put it starkly, he is not playing with a full deck of cards. His loose-cannon conduct and the incoherent drivel he spouts daily raise doubts not just about his diagnosis but, more importantly, political dependability, whatever his usefulness in the past may have been. The issue of dependability is particularly acute in light of the ongoing global geopolitical confrontations.
Two examples will illustrate this point. One is the dismally failed “popular support rally” organized by the regime on May 26, with participants brought in under duress, which was not just embarrassingly flooded by torrential rain but, more importantly, with all the resources at the government’s disposal it was a colossal flop. It failed to come even close numerically to the mass gatherings organized by Western NGOs. The regime made an enormous misjudgement when it decided to sponsor an event that predictably would turn into a failure. It was a move that suggests disarray and incompetence within regime ranks and points to inability to develop an effective strategy to counter the challenges it is facing. Appearing as nincompoops does not recommend the regime as dependable vassals.
The second point is much more important. It is the danger that the cornered regime, pressed from all sides and with nowhere to go, might opt for what we could call the “Erdogan 2016” exist strategy, consisting of a sudden switch to the Eurasian camp in the present global crisis. The usurper stupidly intimated that something along those lines might be contemplated when a few days ago he publicly admitted receiving warnings “from a fraternal intelligence agency” indicating that a “color revolution” was being executed to depose him.
Both allusions were amateurishly transparent, reinforcing the impression of extreme panic at the top and supporting concern over potentially erratic behaviour. Who else might be promoting the color revolution, except his masters and sponsors from the collective West? Does that indicate that he no longer regards relations with them as amicable and that he now fears that they are out to get him? The equally transparent allusion to the fraternal intelligence service warning him of imminent danger is a thinly disguised reference to Russia. This is a mirror image reproduction of the 2016 Turkish scenario when the timely warning of Russian intelligence not just saved Erdogan from a Western coup but resulted also in the fundamental reorientation of Turkey’s position in global politics. Both developments were extremely detrimental to Western interests.
Never mind that both assertions are accurate, that there is indeed a color revolution in progress in Serbia and that it may be assumed that Russian intelligence has been communicating with their Serbian counterparts about it. But a responsible and stable political figure would quietly take effective countermeasures, without talking about it on television. This way, the fool has let the cat out of the bag and signalled to his collective West bosses, on whom he still decisively depends, that for the sake of self-preservation he may be getting ready to imitate the Erdogan model and switch sides.
If there is anything that might seal his fate and accelerate the color revolution agenda to get rid of him, this will be it.
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Serbia’s only hope is contained in the last paragraph.